Developing countries have built Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) proposal
in order to protect their agricultural products. By using seasoality method test,
Mann-Kendall test, and control chart, the study found out that export pattern of
Indonesia’s agricultural products is not in line with the existing SSM proposal. The
agricultural products of coffee and tea showed significant seasonal pattern of export
to India’s market. Other agricultural products of cacao and its processed products
also presented significant seasonal pattern of export to Malaysia, Singapore and
China. Meanwhile, vegetable oil and fats did not show significant seasonal pattern of
export to importing countries. On the SSM proposal, Indonesia should promote the
minimum level of 19.92 persen, which is higher than developing countries proposal
of maximum 10%.
Keywords : seasonality, safeguard, developing country
Buletin Ilmiah Perdagangan, Vol. 5 No.1, Juli 2011